Counterpoint Research is back again with a new report, and this time it shines the light on Apple. As per the latest findings, it has revealed that the Cupertino-based iPhone-maker is on track to end 2025 on a high note, quite possibly on top of the world.
iPhone sales in 2025 could propel Apple to the top
Counterpoint Intelligence via Bloomberg has revealed that Apple is set to post a 10% year-over-year growth by the end of 2025. This will take it past Samsung, the current top phone titleholder, to become the world's top smartphone manufacturer. The publication claims that Apple will end 2025 with 19.4% market share.
If true, this will make this the first time in the last 11 years that Apple has been able to claim the top spot as the biggest smartphone manufacturer in the world. Samsung has been able to maintain the position for a long time. However, with a modest 4.6% increase in phone sales forecast by year-end, it will not be able to shoot past Apple.
A large part of this success can be attributed to the recent launch of the iPhone 17 series and the explosive sales of the iPhone 17. With ProMotion finally coming to the base variant, fans have been purchasing the latest iPhone left and right.
Yang Wang, a senior research analyst at Counterpoint, says that a key factor in the success of the iPhone 17 series lies in the fact that a lot of early iPhone owners are now entering their upgrade phase. This, in turn, translates to more sales numbers for Apple.
Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. (…) Consumers who purchased smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.
— Yang Wang, senior research analyst at Counterpoint
Moreover, the debut of the first-ever iPhone Fold in 2026 along with the launch of the next budget iPhone 17e, will further push the demand for iPhones in the coming year. This will partly help Apple to enjoy the top spot till 2029. Aside from that, the report has also mentioned that the overall smartphone market has seen a modest growth of 3.3%.
