Google Pixel Is the Only Android Winner in a Tough 2026 Market

We already know that the memory shortage has significantly slowed down smartphone sales in 2026 due to a sharp price increase. While a handful of manufacturers have decided to absorb this, most brands are being forced to increase prices, leading to lower sales, and new data shows the aftereffects of the same.

Google Pixels could be the only Androids holding steady

According to a new research note from Morgan Stanley via Investing.com, global Android shipments are expected to plummet by a staggering 15% year-over-year. The sharp decline is primarily attributed to the RAM shortage and inflation, which have forced price spikes, reducing consumer demand. 

Image Credit: Google

The report suggests that Apple and Google have been the least affected so far, with iPhone shipments expected to dip by just 2%. Apple is seeing an increased switch rate of 11%, up from 6% in 2025, while Pixels, while still gaining users, could slow down by an estimated 28% from 33% in 2025. This makes Pixels the only Android brand to be actively gaining users.

However, the overall data raises a deep concern from the Android ecosystem when looked through the lens of switching rates. Creative Strategies analyst, Max Weinbach, says all major smartphone brands are currently experiencing negative switching rates. This means they're losing more users, with Google Pixel being the only exception.

Image Credit: X/ @mweinbach

Besides, the Morgan Stanley report, too, states, "Apple is positioned to be the clearest market share beneficiary in 2026, while Android vendors are likely to lose share." Lastly, the bank also states that the greater price sensitivity will leave Android "more vulnerable vs Apple".

Estimates suggest smartphone sales could drop to 1.1 billion units from 1.3 billion in 2025, which is a -13% difference. To reiterate, Android shipments could fall by over 15%, while Apple is expected to decline by 2%. Due to Apple's massive sale, its 11% switching rate could have a much more profound impact on the global market than Google's growth.

Nonetheless, as expected, 2026 is shaping up to be an incredibly tough year for Android fans and brands. As component prices rise, brands will continue to squeeze profit margins by increasing smartphone prices, with no choice left.